Key Findings
- India-Bangladesh relations have reached their lowest point since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971
- Both countries suspended regular visa services on December 22, 2025—an unprecedented diplomatic measure
- The immediate trigger was the assassination of Sharif Osman Hadi and subsequent violence, but structural tensions run deeper
- India’s refusal to extradite Sheikh Hasina, convicted of crimes against humanity, remains the core unresolved issue
- Without addressing the Hasina question, no diplomatic reset is possible regardless of surface-level de-escalation efforts
Anatomy of a Collapse
December 2025 will be remembered as the month India-Bangladesh relations reached their nadir. What began with an assassination spiraled into riots, diplomatic summoning, media warfare, and ultimately the suspension of visa services—a measure with no precedent in the bilateral relationship.
Understanding how we arrived here requires examining both the immediate triggers and the structural fault lines that made this collapse inevitable.
Timeline of the December Crisis
December 12: The Assassination
Sharif Osman Hadi, spokesperson of Inqilab Moncho and a leading figure of the July 2024 uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina, was shot in the head. A potential candidate in the upcoming February 2026 elections, Hadi was known for his anti-hegemony politics and criticism of India’s role in Bangladesh.
The alleged shooter: an Awami League activist who reportedly fled to India.
December 17: India Summons Bangladesh Envoy
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs summoned Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to express “strong concerns over the deteriorating security environment” in Bangladesh. The statement focused on attacks against Hindu minorities and Indian diplomatic properties.
December 18: The Day Everything Changed
Morning: Sharif Osman Hadi succumbed to his injuries, triggering nationwide grief and anger.
Afternoon: Violent mobs attacked the offices of Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, two of Bangladesh’s most respected newspapers. Attackers claimed the institutions were “linked to India” and “pro-Awami League.” Both buildings were set ablaze.
The cultural institution Chhayanaut was also vandalized.
Evening: In Bhaluka Upazila, Dipu Chandra Das, a 25-year-old Hindu garment worker, was lynched and burned by a mob over unverified blasphemy allegations.
December 19-21: Escalating Recriminations
Both countries summoned each other’s envoys repeatedly. Protests erupted outside diplomatic missions in both Dhaka and Delhi. Indian media coverage reached fever pitch, with BJP politicians demanding action.
December 22: The Visa Suspension
In an unprecedented move, both India and Bangladesh announced suspension of regular visa services. The measure affects hundreds of thousands who travel between the countries for medical treatment, business, family visits, and education.
December 23-24: Protests and Counter-Protests
Large protests in Delhi demanded Indian government action to “protect Hindus.” Counter-protests in Dhaka accused India of sheltering Hasina and spreading disinformation.
Historical Context
The Structural Fault Lines
The December crisis didn’t emerge from nothing. It exposed fault lines that had been widening since August 2024.
Fault Line 1: The Hasina Factor
Sheikh Hasina fled to India on August 5, 2024, after the July uprising. India granted her sanctuary. On November 17, 2025, Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal convicted her of crimes against humanity and sentenced her to death.
Bangladesh formally requested extradition on November 21. India has not complied.
For Bangladesh, this is existential. A neighbor harboring someone convicted of killing 1,400+ citizens cannot be considered a friend. India’s position—that this is a “political case”—directly contradicts international law, which explicitly excludes crimes against humanity from political offense exceptions.
Fault Line 2: The Narrative War
Indian media’s coverage of Bangladesh since August 2024 has been overwhelmingly negative, focusing on:
- Hindu minority persecution (often with unverified claims)
- “Islamist takeover” fears
- Criticism of the interim government
- Nostalgia for the Hasina era
Bangladesh views this as deliberate destabilization. The interim government’s press secretary called it “industrial level dissemination of deliberate disinformation.”
Fault Line 3: Strategic Realignment
The Yunus government has pursued a more diversified foreign policy than Hasina’s India-centric approach:
- March 2025 visit to China, signing 8 MOUs
- Discussions on J-10CE fighter jet acquisition ($2.2B)
- Joining the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral forum
- Opening defense cooperation with Pakistan
India interprets this as a “pivot away,” though Dhaka frames it as “strategic autonomy.”
Fault Line 4: Domestic Politics
BJP’s electoral strategy relies on Hindu nationalist mobilization. Bangladesh provides a convenient external threat narrative. Every incident of anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh becomes domestic political ammunition in India.
Conversely, Bangladesh’s political landscape—with elections approaching—rewards criticism of Indian “hegemony.” Politicians across the spectrum have incentives to appear tough on Delhi.
The Economics of Estrangement
Beyond politics, the breakdown threatens substantial economic ties:
| Trade Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Bilateral trade (2024) | $13+ billion |
| Bangladesh imports from India | ~$12 billion |
| Indian medical tourists to Bangladesh | Minimal |
| Bangladeshi medical tourists to India | 500,000+ annually |
The visa suspension directly impacts:
- Medical treatment access for Bangladeshis
- Cross-border business operations
- Family connections (many families span the border)
- Educational exchanges
Bangladesh has more to lose economically given the trade imbalance, but India’s reputational damage in the region may prove costlier long-term.
The Hadi Assassination: Unanswered Questions
The killing of Sharif Osman Hadi remains central to the crisis. Key questions:
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The shooter’s escape: How did the alleged Awami League activist flee to India? Was there facilitation?
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The timing: Hadi was a potential electoral candidate. His elimination benefits specific political interests.
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The investigation: Bangladesh has demanded India’s cooperation. None has been forthcoming.
For many Bangladeshis, India’s refusal to cooperate on the Hadi investigation—while claiming concern about “law and order” in Bangladesh—exemplifies the relationship’s hypocrisy.
Pathways to De-escalation
Scenario 1: Surface Normalization
Both sides resume visa services, issue calming statements, and pretend the structural issues don’t exist. This is the most likely near-term outcome, but it solves nothing. The next incident will trigger another crisis.
Scenario 2: Structured Dialogue
Formal diplomatic engagement on core issues:
- Hasina extradition or third-country resolution
- Media responsibility framework
- Security cooperation on cross-border criminals
- Trade and connectivity discussions
This requires political will that currently doesn’t exist.
Scenario 3: Prolonged Cold Peace
Relations remain formally intact but functionally frozen. Visa restrictions continue. Trade suffers. People-to-people ties wither. Both countries pursue alternative partnerships.
This is the trajectory without intervention.
Scenario 4: Third-Party Mediation
International actors (UN, major powers) facilitate dialogue. Unlikely given both countries’ pride and the relatively low priority of the relationship for global powers.
The Core Truth
What Bangladesh Must Do
Immediate Measures
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Protect all citizens: Enhanced security for minorities, journalists, and cultural institutions regardless of political affiliation
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Transparent communication: Proactive, factual updates to international community countering misinformation
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Maintain dignity: Avoid inflammatory rhetoric while firmly asserting sovereign positions
Medium-Term Strategy
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Diversify dependencies: Accelerate alternative trade routes, energy sources, and partnerships
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Document everything: Systematic recording of Indian media misinformation for potential international forums
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Build regional relationships: Strengthen ties with China, Japan, EU, and ASEAN as hedges
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Engage Indian civil society: Not all of India supports BJP’s approach; identify and cultivate alternative voices
India’s Choice
India faces a strategic decision. It can:
Option A: Treat Bangladesh as a subordinate state that must accept Indian preferences on Hasina, foreign policy alignment, and domestic politics. This approach has failed. Bangladesh is not Nepal circa 2015 or Sri Lanka pre-Rajapaksa. The July uprising demonstrated that Bangladeshis will not accept imposed arrangements.
Option B: Accept Bangladesh as a sovereign neighbor with legitimate interests, including the right to seek justice against former leaders, diversify foreign partnerships, and pursue independent policies. This requires returning or facilitating Hasina’s return and accepting that the “golden era” of compliant Awami League governance is over.
The choice India makes will determine whether December 2025 was a temporary crisis or the beginning of permanent estrangement.
The Bottom Line
Conclusion
The December 2025 crisis has stripped away pretenses. India-Bangladesh relations are not in a rough patch—they are fundamentally broken. The causes are structural, not incidental. And the solutions require choices that neither government currently seems willing to make.
For Bangladesh, the priority must be protecting the gains of the July revolution: sovereignty, justice, and democratic transition. No relationship is worth sacrificing these.
For India, the question is whether it can accept a genuinely independent Bangladesh. The answer will shape South Asian geopolitics for decades.
This Issue Brief represents the analysis of the Inqilab Delta Forum research team.
Sources:
- The Diplomat
- Crisis Group
- Al Jazeera
- OHCHR
- Washington Post
- Indian Ministry of External Affairs statements
- Bangladesh Foreign Ministry statements